This year is expected to be pivotal for the war in Ukraine, with numerous analysts predicting that 2025 will bring peace negotiations to the forefront. Entering its fourth year of conflict, the war that once seemed endless is now being discussed in terms of potential resolution. But what has led to this shift?
Ukraine Losing Key Leverage
The question remains whether Ukraine can endure another year of war. While Ukrainian forces continue to resist Russian advances in the east, they are nearly encircled near Kurakhovo, one of the fiercest battlegrounds in recent weeks.
Although Ukraine has managed to surprise Russia with attacks deep into its territory, it has lost about half of the territory it had seized in Russia’s Kursk region. This loss diminishes a key bargaining chip in negotiations. U.S. officials have warned that, by spring, Ukraine may lose all contested territory.
Trump’s Impact on Negotiations
Donald Trump’s imminent arrival in the White House is likely to accelerate peace talks. His presidency could lead to a push for negotiations or even a withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine if he fulfills his threats to reduce or halt aid.
As reported by The New York Times, Ukraine is aware that without substantial aid, the fighting may soon end unfavorably. However, NATO allies have devised a plan to sustain logistical support for Ukraine, one designed to be “Trump-proof.”
Can Europe Step In to Replace the U.S.?
Officials in Joe Biden’s administration are skeptical of Europe’s ability to assume America’s role. The economic power of the dollar allows the U.S. to finance defense with large deficits, a capability Europe cannot replicate. If American support dwindles, Europe may struggle to provide sufficient ammunition and funding to sustain Ukraine’s military efforts.
Negotiations over territories occupied by Russia remain a key question. Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of relinquishing Ukrainian land currently under Russian control, even though he has not demonstrated intentions to seize more.
Negotiations May Be Unfavorable for Ukraine
Trump’s vice president, J.D. Vance, has previously suggested freezing the conflict, allowing Russia to retain territories seized by force. His scenario includes establishing a “demilitarized zone” in Ukraine and denying the country NATO membership. This would represent a dramatic shift from Biden’s policy of supporting Ukraine militarily.
Reports from The Wall Street Journal suggest Trump’s team is considering a plan to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by at least 20 years, in exchange for continued Western arms deliveries and the deployment of European peacekeeping forces to oversee a ceasefire. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has expressed dissatisfaction with such a proposal.
Experts Predict Temporary, Not Permanent, Peace
Foreign policy analyst Denis Avdagić has noted that achieving lasting peace is unlikely, given that Russia has declared four Ukrainian regions as part of its territory.
“A temporary solution is the most likely outcome. Ukraine cannot concede territory, which makes negotiations difficult. Meanwhile, Putin must at least create the appearance of victory to justify the war to the Russian people. Lasting peace is unlikely, at least for now,” Avdagić explains.
Zelensky’s Limited Influence on Western Allies
Another analyst, Božo Kovačević, argues that Ukraine will face pressure from the U.S. to temporarily relinquish control over some territories.
“Zelensky is aware of this possibility, which is why he has intensified communication with Trump. However, he knows he cannot impose his stance on the West, while the West can impose its will on him,” Kovačević says.
Russia’s Challenges After the War
Even if a ceasefire is achieved, Kovačević emphasizes that Russia will not be at ease.
“Ceasefire or not, Russia will face increasing economic instability, rising inflation, and potential political unrest. While Putin boasts that Russia’s economy has avoided the worst effects of sanctions, further economic development depends on technological cooperation with the West. Additionally, the cost of maintaining the war at its current intensity places a heavy burden on Russia’s budget and economy,” he adds.
A Realistic Path to a Ceasefire in 2025
Avdagić concludes that a temporary ceasefire in 2025 is a realistic possibility.
“Both sides are exhausted by a brutal war that offers no respite. The scale of artillery use is unprecedented. The situation is grim and exhausting, and now Trump enters the scene, eager to end the conflict quickly.
Putin couldn’t break Ukraine militarily, so he will try through negotiations or an illusion of peace. However, the key question is whether Moscow believes it gains more from negotiations or from continuing the fight. Militarily, Russia’s recent gains have been minimal and largely consist of scorched earth—land devoid of people, animals, or buildings,” Avdagić concludes.
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