The political arena in the Netherlands has probably never been as fragmented as it is today. In the just-concluded parliamentary elections, a total of 29 parties participated, some of which are entirely new. Among these newcomers, the most significant is undoubtedly the New Social Contract (Nieuw Sociaal Contract), a party founded by Pieter Omtzigt. This former member of the Christian Democrats (CDA) exposed massive irregularities in the tax administration’s work a few years ago, along with his colleague from the Socialist Party (SP), Renske Leijten. These errors plunged thousands of the poorest layers of the local population into dire straits. This revelation brought him great popularity throughout the country, especially among the needy. At one point, many even thought that he could become the new prime minister, succeeding the (neo)liberal Mark Rutte. However, things took a different turn. The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by the far-right Geert Wilders, triumphed in the elections.
I must admit, unlike many, I am not too surprised by the election results. Wilders shone in the pre-election campaign, a politician that the political establishment tried to avoid in every possible way. He was his typical self: bold, sharp-tongued, quick-witted, but also relaxed and humorous when needed.
This right-wing figure, internationally known for the controversial short film “Fitna” and provocative statements about “new Dutch” of the Islamic faith, has been under constant police protection for years due to these actions.
Considering this, it is no wonder that this politician is entirely unacceptable to progressive voters. However, for those on the other end of the spectrum… The number of his followers has steadily increased in recent years, and in the weeks leading up to the elections, it became clear that Wilders was a serious competitor to the long-ruling liberals (VVD). Most analysts predicted a neck-and-neck race between his party and the (neo)liberals led by the resigning Prime Minister Rutte (VVD).
In fact, considering all the circumstances, the rise in Wilders’ popularity is not surprising at all: unprecedented inflation (especially since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war), a growing gap between the rich and poor, chaos in healthcare and education, fear of immigrants…
All of this, along with the unconvincing nature of other candidates, influenced many (especially those with thinner wallets and less education) to see Wilders as, if not a savior, at least a protector of their interests.
During the pre-election campaign, this right-winger had a clever strategy: he “thickened” the social aspects of his program (largely “borrowed” from socialists and social democrats), softened his rhetoric towards Muslims, promised a radical healthcare reform, and, most importantly to his voters, promised to implement a total stop to immigration! By skillfully combining these elements, he created a broad base of sympathizers of various backgrounds: from notorious right-wingers and xenophobes to former leftists disappointed with the indecision of parties with a “red” sign.
When public opinion polls showed that things were getting serious, social democrats and greens united and joined forces in the elections. They hoped that, along with their own supporters, they would attract many undecided voters, utterly confused by the growing popularity of Wilders. In the hope of saving the honor of the fallen left, they returned the experienced social democrat, polyglot (speaking seven languages!) Frans Timmermans, as the lead candidate for the “red-green” list from Brussels.
All in vain. Things went too far, both for them and for the aforementioned liberals (VVD), who until a few days ago were unbeatable. They put forward the recent Minister of Justice and Security, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, a Dutch woman of Turkish-Kurdish origin, as their main candidate in the elections. They expected her to soon succeed the resigning Prime Minister Rutte.
Although Dilan proved to be a pretty good politician during the pre-election campaign, VVD suffered a severe defeat: ten seats less than in the elections four years ago (34/24). It turned out that Rutte’s “mistakes” in the past decade were still too significant: lies and maneuvering, favoring multinational companies and the richer population… It was too much, and it lasted too long, even for the top-notch manipulator, the “eel-like” Rutte.
On the other hand, it is rumored that the more conservative part of the VVD did not like having a woman of a different background, especially not Turkish, as the lead candidate. Although no one openly says it here, I would not be surprised if a considerable number of (potential) VVD members thought that way and voted for another party.
The aforementioned Pieter Omtzigt, as the list leader, turned out to be quite unconvincing. Without prominent names and a clear plan, he appeared quite awkward in debates. As the “icing on the cake,” he made a statement that he personally feels more like a representative of the (moderate) right than the left center. Many saw him as a protector of the interests of needy citizens! Still, for the first time, he got a significant number (20) of seats in parliament. However, even if he enters into a coalition with Wilders, Omtzigt is almost certainly not going to be the new prime minister.
Timmermans and his “red-green” group got “only” 25 seats, and the strong Farmers’ Party (BBB), led by the charismatic Caroline van der Plas, achieved notable success by jumping from one to seven seats.
And Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV)? They are unquestionable, the absolute winners of the elections. They “skyrocketed”: from the previous 17 to a whopping 37 seats in parliament! Thus, this European “orange ship,” like Italy, Hungary, Slovenia… suddenly veered to the right.
Finally, a word about the defeated. The “new democrats” (D66) were thoroughly defeated, sinking from the previous 24 to just 9 seats. The Christian Democrats (CDA, 15/5) and the Socialists (SP, 9/5) were also defeated. The latter suffered their sixth consecutive electoral debacle. Still, their First Comrade Lilian, the daughter of the legendary founder of modern SP Jan Marijnissen, stubbornly refuses to resign. It’s a shame that she seems to have learned little from her father.
A day after the elections, post-election coalition “hot games” have already begun. Wilders’ plan to form a “clean” right-wing government was spoiled by Yeşilgöz’s statement that VVD would not join the government of right-wing forces, but would help Wilders & Co. from the parliamentary benches (gedoogsteun – support of an opposition party to a minority cabinet). Before the elections, she explicitly claimed that no option was ruled out for her in forming the future government.
So now, even Wilders, a wolf of a different fur, is scratching his head. Long and highly uncertain negotiations and tensions over a minority government are ahead.
Goran Sarić, Prometej.ba