NOT ALL OF BIH IS A FAILED PROJECT: How the Croat-Bosniak Federation Died as a Society While Republika Srpska Became a True Democracy

As the world watches Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) grapple with deeply rooted divisions, an uncomfortable paradox surfaces for Europe: Republika Srpska (RS), often criticized for its nationalist rhetoric and ties to Russia, has managed to develop a vibrant democratic culture compared to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), an entity supported by the West where such culture has long been dormant. This regression dates back to 2001, when the Office of the High Representative (OHR), under Austrian influence, froze pluralistic culture in FBiH by altering inter-ethnic relations.

This paradox raises uncomfortable questions about the harmful role of international oversight and the destructive diplomacy of the European Union, which, within just a few years post-war, undid much of what U.S. diplomacy achieved in 1994 and 1995. The U.S. had successfully brought warring Bosniaks and Croats together into a single political framework and compelled Serbs to negotiate—an achievement truly worthy of admiration.

Did the West Intentionally Strengthen RS While Stalling Democracy in FBiH?

If so, why? If not, is it time to admit the ineptitude of post-conflict societal development? Why did the EU’s post-war diplomacy veer from fostering inter-ethnic cooperation toward deepening divisions?

Republika Srpska: An Unexpected Democracy Under Russian Influence

In RS, political pluralism has taken root in ways unimaginable in FBiH—or even in many newer EU member states.

Street protests, lively parliamentary debates, and open opposition to Milorad Dodik are common occurrences. Recent clashes in Banja Luka between Mayor Draško Stanivuković, a prominent opposition leader, and RS police over disputed budget amendments highlight a level of civic activism and political engagement often associated with European democracies.

While Dodik still dominates RS politics, the opposition’s ability to criticize his policies and mobilize public dissent signals a political culture that tolerates disagreement. This stands in sharp contrast to FBiH, where genuine political competition is suppressed, and public dissent is nearly non-existent—except for events like recent celebrations by Palestinians in Sarajevo over rocket strikes on Israel.

Frozen Federation: Legacy of OHR’s Divisive and Stagnant Policies

Political pluralism in FBiH is nearly non-existent. Bosniak political parties, whether nominally left- or right-leaning, act as a unified nationalist bloc. Meanwhile, the Croatian political voice has been reduced to a single entity—HDZ—dominated by institutional discrimination and majoritarianism imposed by the Bosniaks, empowered by OHR.

The OHR’s role in this stagnation is undeniable, as it repeatedly altered the constitutional framework to favor the Bosniak majority at the expense of Croats and even Serbs within FBiH. Often acting beyond its mandate, these interventions entrenched nationalist politics, with Bosniaks focused on maintaining dominance rather than pursuing significant reforms.

Overreach by the OHR

1. Erosion of Trust Among Communities: By shifting power to the Bosniak majority, OHR alienated Croats and marginalized Serbs in FBiH.
2. Freezing Political Development: Instead of fostering pluralism, these interventions solidified nationalist politics, exacerbating inter-ethnic mistrust.

The result is a deeply polarized FBiH, where Bosniaks and Croats see each other as adversaries rather than partners in peacebuilding. This has left the Federation vulnerable and reliant on international oversight.

EU Diplomacy: A Double-Edged Sword

By the end of the war, U.S. diplomacy worked to forge an alliance between Croats and Bosniaks to weaken RS’s negotiating position. However, post-Dayton, EU diplomats—especially Austrians—pursued policies that reopened wounds between Bosniaks and Croats, undoing American diplomatic efforts.

Key Failures:

• Post-War Polarization: Austrian diplomats exacerbated Bosniak-Croat tensions, strengthening nationalist factions.
• Favoritism Towards Bosniaks: By consistently siding with Bosniak political interests, the EU marginalized Croats, fostering resentment.
• Unintended Strengthening of RS: These divisive policies allowed RS to consolidate its autonomy, reducing dependence on international actors and strengthening ties with Russia.

Reislamization and Radicalization in FBiH

One unintended consequence of EU policies in BiH has been the gradual reislamization and radicalization of Bosniak political culture. Instead of promoting pluralism, power consolidation within Bosniak nationalist and Islamist-centric parties has distanced the Federation from the European model it claims to aspire to.

Simultaneously, Croats, feeling marginalized, have been forced into political homogenization, with HDZ acting as their sole representative—a development they did not seek but were compelled into.

A Strengthened Republika Srpska

Ironically, the chaos within FBiH has enabled RS to strengthen its institutions and chart its path toward democratization. If BiH were to collapse today, RS would survive as a functional entity, while FBiH would spiral further into chaos, reliant on international assistance to maintain order.

The Need for Transformation

BiH stands at a crossroads. The current system of entrenched divisions and frozen political dynamics is unsustainable. Two realistic paths forward include:

1. Three-Entity System: Dividing BiH into three equal entities—one for each constituent nation—could ensure fair representation and autonomy for federal units while maintaining state unity. Such a model would decentralize power, allowing each nation to manage its own affairs without external interference, thus reducing tensions and fostering development.
2. Unitary BiH with Tripartite Presidency: Establishing a single BiH state with a veto power for each nation could provide a framework for a functional multi-ethnic democracy, though this would require significant pressure on RS from the West to accept centralization.

Western powers must recognize their role in creating the current impasse and adjust their approach. RS’s paradoxical success as a pluralistic and democratized society serves as both a warning and an opportunity: without significant reforms, FBiH risks becoming a failed experiment while RS continues to strengthen its position as a politically mature entity in BiH.

Nikola Zirdum l poskok.info