The war in Ukraine, ongoing for nearly two years, has caused immense tragedy: countless human casualties, the destruction of infrastructure, mass displacement, and profound political fractures. President Volodymyr Zelensky, once lauded by the West as a symbol of resistance, now faces the possibility of political collapse and exile, akin to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, unlike Assad, who survived with Russian support, Zelensky could face complete isolation, even from his former allies.
War Victims and Political Failure
The war has turned Ukraine into a battleground for international interests while leaving the country devastated. Millions of refugees have fled, and the number of civilian and military casualties has reached levels unseen in Europe since World War II.
Initially, Zelensky enjoyed widespread support from Western leaders and media. However, as the war dragged on and losses mounted, international support began to wane. The latest U.S. weapons shipments come amidst slow political consensus, with President Joe Biden facing mounting domestic criticism for the massive financial and military expenditures on what many Americans perceive as a losing cause.
Domestically, Zelensky faces growing opposition from multiple factions, accusing him of authoritarian governance, corruption, and mismanagement of the war effort.
Capitulation and Political Uprising
Zelensky’s position could worsen significantly in the event of a formal or informal peace agreement involving territorial concessions to Russia. Such an outcome appears increasingly likely, as Ukraine lacks the resources to decisively reverse the war’s trajectory without substantial Western aid.
A capitulation would trigger widespread unrest, particularly among radical nationalist groups, who already view Zelensky as a traitor. Paramilitary factions like the Right Sector and Azov could potentially attempt to overthrow his government.
In such a scenario, Zelensky might end up in exile, likely in the United States, where rumors suggest he has secured property and financial backing. The Biden administration, which has shielded him through favorable media coverage, would probably offer asylum, but this would not alter the perception that he abandoned a nation in chaos.
What Awaits Ukraine After Capitulation?
- Conflict and Civil War:
Divisions within Ukraine could escalate into a civil war among pro-Western forces, radical nationalists, and pro-Russian regions. Armed factions, empowered during the conflict, may resist returning to political structures. - Federalization of Ukraine:
As part of a potential peace deal, Russia may insist on federalizing Ukraine, granting significant autonomy to pro-Russian regions like Donetsk and Luhansk. This would fragment the country into political and cultural entities, neutralizing its pro-Western agenda. - Economic and Social Collapse:
Without international aid, Ukraine’s free territories could face economic ruin. Mass emigration, rising poverty, and the collapse of state institutions would further destabilize regions under Kyiv’s control.
Key Opposition Leaders and Factions
- Radical Nationalist Groups:
Paramilitary units like the Right Sector and Azov pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s future stability. Their ideology rejects any compromise with Russia, and they view Zelensky as a traitor for pursuing peace talks. - Pro-Western Liberal Opposition:
Figures such as former President Petro Poroshenko and other pro-Western politicians criticize Zelensky for corruption and autocracy. Although weaker than the nationalists, they enjoy some support from Western donors. - Pro-Russian Politicians:
Marginalized during the war, pro-Russian leaders like Viktor Medvedchuk and representatives of Russian-speaking regions could re-emerge as significant players in post-war negotiations. - Internal Dissidents:
Even within Zelensky’s own camp, discontent is growing. A faction of Ukraine’s establishment, including oligarchs and high-ranking officials, may distance themselves from him once he becomes a political liability.
Conclusion
Zelensky, once celebrated as a hero, now faces the prospect of political exile, leaving a fractured and destabilized Ukraine in his wake. His fall reflects not only his own political failures but also the broader shortcomings of the Western approach to the conflict.
As for Ukraine, its future appears grim: political fragmentation, potential federalization, factional conflicts, and economic ruin will likely shape the nation’s fate. With international attention shifting to other crises, Ukraine risks being abandoned—a victim of war, ambition, and its leadership’s inability to navigate these challenges. IURKOV/ POSKOK/